Not content to post my new Home Theater today, I thought I'd post a few thoughts (edited from an e-mail to some friends with whom I frequently discuss Home Theater topics). 

I've been thinking about the HT Topic of the year:  Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD.  How do we know which the public will pick if any? As I pondered past technological trends, I came to a realization: 

The Public Does Not Care About Quality.

Most people on this forum care about quality quite a bit and, to be sure, there are enough people like us to make for some sales, but probably not enough to push a technology all by ourselves. 

But I was thinking about whether the fact that a format is "better" will be enough.  Not by itself. 

The public largely ignored magnetic tapes, Betamax, Laserdiscs, VCD and SVCD, all of which are superior to whatever they were competing with at the time.  Some people rip their mp3s at 96khz when CD quality is 192.  The public has flat out ignored superior XCDs, SACDs and more recently, DVD-As.  I've even seen countless people with pretty fancy home theater setups buying full screen movies to watch on them.  Much of the public deosn't even NOTICE when they're watching pan and scan. 

So, it's quite clear that the public is not necessarily interested in a new technology unless there are some other factors contributing to consumer pickup.  One is convenience:  People gave up the still supreme LP for portability and durability of the Tape, the CD and the MP3.

Another factor is trendiness and style.  The minidisc and the mp3 player were two "geek" technologies that appealed to a few.  In the early 2000s were JUST getting to be somewhat common sights before the iPOD exploded in everyone's face.  Now, even though the iPOD is one of many superior mp3 players, it's the undisputed champion of consumer audio.  Trendiness/Style has been a big motivator in the quick sale of HD TVs.

Another is "Marketing Inspired Consumer Confidence."  Even when the public does care about quality, they're not always right.  Bose is unquestionably the biggest name in consumer audio, but one of the least respected brands in audiophile circles.  What Bose does have going for it is that their speakers are stylish, sound pretty good and have a big enough marketing push that "the public" thinks that they're the best on the market. 

Any thoughts on how those factors and others will affect the upcoming HD battle?  I have some, but honestly..I should do SOME work today

As you alluded to, there are many factors that go into a purchase decision, quality being one of them.  Looking back to VHS vs Beta, clearly the lower quality format won.  The consensus appears to be for the following reasons: lower cost, more options on devices (Sony vs the world), more content (once they figured out that playback of pre-recorded content was the killer app rather than recording TV).  In the case of SACD and DVDA, there hasn't been much uptake.  Issues that I have noted are competing formats with no clear winner and cost.  From what I have read many people beleive the quality gain for the additional cost isn't sufficient (players and content). 

And then we come to HD-DVD & Blu-Ray.  From what I have seen, the quality difference between the two isn't insignificant (as well as the features) to the general public.  Learning their lesson from beta, Sony has managed to line up quite a few allies, but so has HD-DVD (Toshiba). Their looks to be a slight cost advantage to HD-DVD (at least initially).  Then their is the problem of content protection potentially being turned on rendering older sets w/o HDCP via HDMI-DVI support out of luck.  So how do you choose?  Most articles I have read are recommending don't buy.  I agree with that since this mess is a result of greed and an unwillingness to compromise. Net result: everyone loses.  In the mean time, try a good upconverting DVD player (see Ben's Blog) which can reduce the quality difference quite a bit.  Or, as the CE industry continues to squabble, look for HD content to be delivered online bypassing the whole format/player issue (and the CE manufacturers).

Gentlemen..good points!..i have no intention of buying either when they come out..one reason is price..another is the different format thing..i recently invested in the OPPO dvd plyer and am quite happy with it..honestly i dont know how much better the picture could be..ill wait a few years and then see who prevails..and my cable company continues to add quite a few HD channels..i record content  to the DVR and then put it on D-VHS...I do not need a HD-DVD player...Just my 2 cents..Rich G

The PlayStation 3 will also play Blu-Ray movies.  Needless to say, millions will buy the PS3 when it is released this fall for the games, and the Blu-Ray is an added benefit.  I am not sure that there will be nearly as many HD-DVD players sold at that point (especially if most movie consumers are waiting to see which format will win).  Gamers however will buy the PS3, even if it weren’t able to play DVDs, the Blu-Ray is just another feature.

 

So if I were a movie studio exec and wanted the largest market for my high definition DVDs, Blu-Ray seems like the logical choice since there should be many more consumers with access to a Blu-Ray player (PS3) than an HD-DVD player.  Brilliant strategy by Sony IMO. 

 

Of course, I could be wrong.

 

 -Dan

PS3 with Blu-Ray is the type of move that will be viewed as brilliant if it succeeds, or incredibly stupid if it fails.

Concerning Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD - I think both will have difficulties catching on with consumers. No one wants to end up with the format that loses, and many don't even understand the difference between these new formats and the current DVD. I recently tried explaining the benefits to a friend of mine and got a little angry when I came to the part about having to buy a new TV in order to take full advantage.

I, for one, do appreciate quality, but there's no way I'm going to be picking a new format until there is either a compromise, a winner, or a completely different format that comes out of nowhere (HVD?) to take over the industry.

Consoles will definitely have a huge efffect on this battle. 

Last week, Fornay, a Sony VP was quoted that the PS3 would sell for 500 Euros (http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060405-6526.html).  Converted directly, that is over $600.  Of course, a direct conversion would be unlikely--game consoles tend to be more expensive in Europe.  500 Euros would likely produce a price of $500. 

As other commentators have noted, that is a steep price for a console, but a great deal on a blu-ray player.  Which begs the question of whether Blu Ray is supposed to support the PS3 or whether the PS3 is supposed to support Blu-Ray

Notably, that may be apropos nothing:  Sony has since backpedaled a bit, claiming that Fornay was speaking hypothetically. http://www.dlmag.com/1197/750-ps3-price-disputed.html

Personally, I believe that whatever format the porn industry chooses will be the standard, just like it was for VHS vs. Beta.

Porn picked VHS, so VHS was it...simple as that.

 

 

LOL! well, clearly that works for video, but what about music?

I have to say it's fascinating that lower-quality mp3s are taking over the cd market. The iPod has a lot to do with it... and shorter download times (smaller files). Convenience seems to appeal to most Americans over quality, as we've seen in many industries besides audio/video. This makes sense to some degree, but ultimately I try to choose a balance between the two... and sometimes the things that seem convenient end up being more of a pain in the end!

I agree that the last thing the A/V industry needs is another format war.  But after seeing "upconverted" HD movies on DirecTV, I will buckle eventually.  I feel that some dvds have a very good picture, but they are no match for how movies look in HD (not to mention the new audio codecs).  I'll probably wait until a player comes out that plays both formats.

Steve S-

I think LG announced they would be making a dual format player.

 

Personally, I'm going to hold out until another, completely unhyped and unheard-of format comes along to beat both BluRay and HD-DVD.

While I think it's sad, I just don't thing high resolution audio/video will ever be as huge as we all hope....todays world is all about good enough.

Just like the VHS/Beta thing, it has nothing to do with quality...because Beta was very much the higher quality format.

 

Yeah, pretty sure I read that somewhere also.

There were some interesting viewpoints expressed in this thread.  I'm one of those people who jumps on a new technology fairly quickly.  With that said, I recently purchased the Toshiba HD-A1 DVD player.  I replaced my Denon 2910 (awesome player) and was skeptical initially.  As much as I love video qaulity, audio is more than half the experience for me.  The Denon 2910 had some some of the best DAC's around for that type player.

I'm happy to report that the Toshiba HD-A1 exceeds my visual expectations and surpasses my 2910 in audio reproduction.  I feel as if another veil has been removed from my entire soundstage.  I purchased the HD-DVD versions of Apollo 13 and Good Fellas.  Ths sound reproduction in Apollo 13 was awesome.  There's really no need to comment on the video.  I don't think my Sony SXRD 60" has ever looked better.  It's HD-DVD ...little to no grain ..... a pure picture...... vibrant but true color .....

IMO this unit also does a better job than my Denon 2910 in upconverting standard DVD's. 

I'm still going to buy a PS3 with the Blu-Ray player built-in, but right now I'm happy with Toshiba despite the long load time and a few more bugs (which can be fixed the unit excepts an ethernet connection for downloads).